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Polk data shows worldwide new registrations remain steady

19 Dec 2013

Based on data which is preliminary in some cases, global demand for passenger vehicles remains steady with the year before, 聽down 0.1% in November. For the year,聽passenger vehicle registrations are now up 2.94 million or 4.4% on 2012.

Table

Global demand was unable to maintain its uptrend of聽recent months, due in particular to weak results in the聽Asia/Pacific region. According to preliminary results,聽registrations were down about 0.1% from聽2012. On the year, however, the largest region in the world, is still up by more than 7% from聽the year before. China continues to be the region’s driver of growth.

Eastern Europe (up 1.1%) managed to post a gain in聽November although the Russian market continued to聽drop. This improvement is attributable to the聽uptrend in Turkey. However, the region is still down聽1.1% from the year before.

The NAFTA region (up 0.6%) posted slight growth in聽November, but year-to-date passenger vehicle sales in the region聽were up significantly from the year before, by 7.9%, despite聽the fiscal crisis in the US.

In Western Europe (up 0.6%), the picture was mixed: while聽the UK and the Netherlands posted strong gains in the month, registrations were down in three other key regional聽markets, France, Germany and Italy. New registrations are聽still down 2.9% for the year.

New registrations expected to exceed 75聽million units
Global new registrations are expected to set a new record in 2013,聽growing by around 4.5% compared to 2012.

 

Graph

New registrations in the Asia/Pacific region will increase by聽more than 7% in 2013 compared to 2012. In China alone,聽sales at the end of the year will be up about 1.78 million聽units from the year before.

New registrations in the NAFTA region are expected to聽continue to rebound to about 18.3 million units. The聽forecast for this region has improved slightly, while the聽outlook for Latin America has worsened slightly. New聽registrations in Latin America are now expected to grow by聽almost 1.3%, to 6.1 million units.

Eastern Europe will post a slight loss in 2013, due to the聽fact that the situation in Russia has now worsened. The聽worsening economic outlook in conjunction with low oil聽prices has caused new registrations to slump lately. The聽relative strength of the other markets in this region will not聽be enough to offset these losses.

Western European passenger vehicle demand will decline聽for the fourth year in a row in 2013 (down 2.5%), falling to聽approximately where it was in 1993. However, the聽downtrend in new registrations seems to have bottomed聽out. In addition to heavyweights like Germany聽(down 135,000 units), France (down 136,000 units) and聽Italy (down 100,000 units), the Netherlands, a relatively聽small market, will also contribute significantly to the聽decline in sales (down 106,000 units).

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